2015- St Louis Cardinals Preview - Position Players

After a 2014 that had the Cardinals struggling to score runs during long stretches, the Cardinals are looking to step it up this year.  The addition of Heyward and seasoning for Wong had created a lineup that 1-8 will put pressure on the pitchers.  There isn't an easy out in this lineup. (unless the pitcher is lefthanded...)  

To show you how big a dropoff 2014 was from 2013, I've compared them:

(Click on any photo to enlarge it)

The only thing the 2014 Cardinals did better than the 2013 Cardinals was steal 12 bases and hit one more triple.  Other than that, they were clearly inferior.  Why?  

Two reasons...

#1 RF position production:

sOPS+ - a stat that compares the On base percentage plus slugging percentage of a player to the average at their position, the 'average player' is rated 100.  

The 2014 Cardinal Right Fielders were TERRIBLE.  They posted a sOPS+ of 67.  The last time the Cardinals posted a sOPS+ that bad was the 2006 Catchers position. (Molina and Gary Bennett, sOPS+ of 63)  In 2013, the Cardinals RF, mainly Beltran, produced a sOPS+ of 122. This is why some think that the addition of Heyward to the Cardinals was the best off-season move in MLB.  If Heyward matches his career sOPS+ of  114, or even his 2014 sOPS+ of 108, it's a huge boon to the Cardinals offense. 

#2 Clutch Hitting:

The 2013 Cardinals were significantly better in the clutch, but were historic in the numbers they put up with RISP. (sOPS+ of 139)  The 2014 Cardinals more than regressed to the mean and fell below the MLB average with a clutch sOPS+ of 96.  A slight bounce back is to be expected, but a return to 2013 numbers is most unlikely.

2015 Batter Predictions

(Opening Day Lineup)

Matt Carpenter - 3B - 29

Matt Carpenter's sophomore season was good, but not near as productive as his 2013 body of work.  While Carpenter drew 23 more walks in 2014 vs 2013, his patience at the plate may have led to a major drop off  in his power numbers.  His slugging percentage dropped over one hundred points from .481 in 2013, to .375 in 2014.  And his doubles fell from 55 to 33.  He talked about taking a more balanced approach this year which I think will aid his power numbers. 

Carpenter should also look into upgrading his superstition routine because he was extremely unlucky last year.  The MLB average when putting a line drive into play is .690, according to Fangraphs.  Last year when Carpenter hit a line drive he had an average of .573, 117 points lower than the MLB average.  If Carpenter had the league average for line drives last year he would have hit .302 instead of .272.  Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good...

Jason Heyward - RF - 26

I talked about the Jason Heyward acquisition in my Cardinals Off-Season Review .  I'm a believer that a change of scenery will do Heyward good, and have heard rumblings that the Cardinals have helped him make some adjustments at the plate to help him have better plate coverage and open his hips to drive the ball better. (Ok, I just watched the game on ESPN2 and heard the announcers say it)  Add in the fact that this a is a contract year for Heyward and I believe he will have a GREAT season.  

Matt Holliday - LF - 35

Another player I expect to bounce back from a sub-par season.  Matt Holliday will be entering the 2015 season at the age of 35.  Traditionally numbers start to fall off around this age, and Holliday may have started to show some signs in 2014.  A career .308 hitter, Holliday 'only' hit .272 in 2014.  Interestingly, his power numbers stayed about the same as 2013 though.  

Of the total balls that Holliday put in play last year, 16.6% were line drives (LD).  Holliday is a career 19.2% LD hitter.  To see a 2.6% drop off from his career average at this point in his career is concerning.  The fact that he had a LD rate of 20.8% in 2013 makes the drop off even more extreme.

Positive spin: He did have a similar down LD year in 2009(16.9%)

Negative Spin: his Average that year was vastly better than 2014. (.303)

 My theory to explain the sharp decline is part adjustment and part team.  In 2013, Holliday hit into 31 double plays.  I think it would be fair to theorize that a high number like that would get into a player's head and they might start to try to elevate the ball when there are runners on base in an effort to reduce that number.  Also, the team as a whole was struggling to manufacture runs. What happens when you start over-swinging and try to do too much because your team is struggling?  Elevate the ball and hit into fly outs instead of line drives.  The decrease in his 2014 LD rate is almost perfectly matched by the increase in his 2014 Fly Out rate.  His ground ball percentages were nearly identical between the two years.

I already mentioned that the 2014 MLB average for line drives put in play was .690, but the average for fly balls put in play was a paltry .212. It's imperative for Holliday to increase his rate of line drives for my predicted bounce back to happen in 2015.  The improved lineup around him will ideally provide him with:

A. More opportunities    (RBI+)
B. Allow him to relax at the plate and not try to do too much. (LD%+)

That's why I have his average bouncing back and since he has hit 20+ homers for 10 straight years, I think we can assume that's a given.

Jhonny Peralta - SS - 32

Peralta brought the power in 2014.  He also brought durability.  He played in a career high 157 games in 2014.  I have projected similar stats for Jhonny in 2015, but wouldn't be surprised if his games played went down by 5-10.  Due to the rest, I could see Peralta's average climbing 10-15 points.

Matt Adams - 1B - 26

Adams' 2014 season was his first full season.  He dealt with an injury in the season, but still managed to post respectable numbers.  I have Adams increasing his numbers in nearly every statistical category in 2015 due to the fact that he is the 5th youngest starting 1B in MLB.  Where there is youth, there is the potential to grow! (or fail)

Big City crushed RH Pitching, but could barely swing his way out of a paper bag against lefties in 2014:

Matt Adams v LHP - 2014

I heard a lot about how Adams was working on hitting lefties before the season last year, but unfortunately, it didn't translate to the field.  I haven't heard much this year.  The Cardinals went out and got Mark Reynolds as an insurance policy at 1B in case Adam's struggles continue with lefties, but he isn't much better:

Mary Reynolds v LHP - 2014

That will hopefully allow Adams to continue to get at bats against lefties and grow as a player.  I'd hate to see him get stuck behind Reynolds, who hasn't shown to be any better and is entering the twilight of his career.   This is a crucial season for Adams to determine his long-term standing with the Cardinals.  

Yadier Molina - 32

Molina’s defense is what will get him to the Hall of Fame: Seven consecutive Gold Gloves, three Platinum Gloves, and two Defensive Player of the Year awards.  (Also an elite game caller and clubhouse leader)  But his offense from 2011-2013 put him among the elite hitting catchers in the game as well.  While not as good as the previous years, Molina was still hitting a respectable .287/.341/.408 before his thumb injury in 2014.  After returning (early) from his thumb injury, Yadi posted .250/.292/.308 (AVG/OBP/SLG)

I expect a healthier and lighter Molina to return to form.  Much had been made of Yadi's weight loss, but I side with the player and the Cardinals.  Getting in better shape can only help Yadi because outside of the steroid era, catchers start seeing a decline in their offensive numbers around his age.  Yadi is too smart a hitter to see his AVG and OBP drop significantly, but his power numbers most likely will start dropping.  By getting in better shape, it appears that Molina is going to give Father Time a fight.

Kolten Wong - 24

2014 was a tale of two seasons for the young second baseman.  The first season was like winter, cold and crappy.  When Wong was demoted to AAA to help him find himself his numbers were: .228/.282/.304.    The second season, after getting re-called up was more like spring: .262/.298/.443!

Now I understand these aren't exactly HOF numbers here, but that shows that Wong is starting to create an approach that will be successful in the majors.  Wong clearly was hitting the ball better as his avg went up .30+, but his slugging slamming up over a hundred points.  If Wong maintained that stretch for a whole season he would be a top 5 slugging 2B, at age 24!   

Batting Kolten Wong 7th, ahead of the high average Jay allows Wong's power to impact scoring opportunities,  while also  allowing Wong to act as a table setter for the bottom of the lineup.  Jay's high average and patience aid in Wong's base stealing/hit and run game that in-turn helps turn over the lineup back to the top. 

Jon Jay - 30

Poor Jon Jay,I feel as though 'Cardinal Nation' overlooks him, and under appreciates what he brings to the table. (Or is that just me?) All Jay did last year is .303/.372/.378.  HE HIT .300!   Jay is also one of the few Cardinals who feasted on Left handed pitching in 2014:  .375/.404/.455.

His fielding was all that Mo' and Cardinal fans could talk about after the 2013 season and It was statistically a poor season. (I wont bore you with those details)  2014 was a return to 2012, as far the statistics tell us.  So it might have been some statistical aberration, Cardinals acquiring Bourjos to push Jay, injury, or he just remembered how to play the outfield.  Whatever the cause, the result was one of the best values in baseball.  The Cardinals bought out Jay's remaining arbitration years and signed him to a 2yr/$10+ million dollar contract.   Bargain.


You agree?  Disagree?  Comment below!