2015 St Louis Cardinals - Off-Season Review

What was looking to be a quiet off-season for the Cardinals took an abrupt turn with the passing of Oscar Taveras.  GM John "Mo" Mozeliak pulled the trigger on a trade that will have both short-term and long-term impact for both teams.  

The Cardinals traded SP Shelby Miller and prospect SP Tyrell Jenkins for RF Jason Heyward and RP Jordan Walden.  

It’s hard to part with a pitcher with such talent, and on top of that, the additional 4 years of control the team still had and it hurts four times as bad.  That being said, in order to get something you have to give something.  Let's focus on what the Cardinals got:

Jason Heyward - RF

As a prospect, Jason Heyward was touted as a 5 tool player and was being compared to many of the past greats, including Ken Griffey, Jr.  As a major leaguer, his game has yet to come together.  He showed power in 2012 when he launched 27 big flys, but hasn't topped 14 since.  He is a gold glove defender in right, and had shown to be capable of stealing 20 bases multiple times.

As a huge prospect with the Braves, he hasn't yet reached his full potential.  I think a change in environment, and a different role will allow him to blossom.  Last year the Braves had Heyward bat leadoff, being a team player it seems that Heyward changed his focus from power to getting on base and setting the table.  So far in Spring Training, the Cardinals have been using Heyward as a the #2 guy in the lineup, behind leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter.

Jason Walden - RP

Might be the steal of the trade!  The Cardinals essentially traded prospect Tyrell Jenkins for Jason Walden.  Jason Walden is a "no-name" middle reliever whose stats are comparable to the departed Pat Neshek.  While the results are similar, they couldn't be more different.  Neshek uses his unconventional delivery to throw off hitters while Walden at 6'5, 250 lbs, typically throws into the high 90's.  He was even quoted as saying he thought he could bring it at 100+.    Walden has a career ERA of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.23.  Neshek's ERA is 2.78 and WHIP is 1.05.  

While Neshek’s numbers do appear to be slightly better, he signed with the Astros for $12 million over 2 years (team option for third).  Walden just signed an extension with the Cardinals for $6 million over two years, with a $5 million team option on year 3.  Mo strikes again!  "Replaced" Neshek and "saved" 6 million.

Final Thoughts:  This trade addressed the two largest needs for the Cardinals:  an everyday RF and a RH Setup man to replace Neshek.  Since Jason Heyward is a free agent at the end of the year, this trade will likely be evaluated long-term by many Cardinal fans if he re-signs (at a reasonable price).  If he walks, and Miller continues on his trajectory, then it could be a tough swallow for the 'Birds.  Picking up Walden was a shrewd move by the Cardinals GM, as usual.  What I’m most afraid of is that Heyward will thrive in a new situation and price himself out of the Cardinals long term plans.

However, the Cardinals do have a lot of financial flexibility with only three players signed thru 2018.(Waino, Molina, Carpenter) A long term, 10 year contract for Heyward, age: 26-36, would be extremely similar to the Matt Holiday’s 7 year contract, age: 29-36)  By acquiring Heyward now the Cardinals appear to be leasing Mr. Heyward for the year, kick the tires, see if they can make some slight modifications to his stroke, make sure that he is a clubhouse fit. If all seems right, hopefully they’ll work out an extension in the middle to late part of the year and he’ll be the RF for a long time to come.  If it’s not a fit, the Cardinals hopefully get a solid year of production in RF while buying another year of seasoning for Grichuk who can then to take over in 2016. 

Cardinals Sign RP Matt Belisle for 1 year, $3.5 million

At first, this signing is a little bit of a head scratcher.  Belisle has a 4.41 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over his 11 year career.  Given the Cardinals surplus of arms this year, it doesn't look to make sense to keep a Sam Freeman player in AAA for a player with this track record.  Then this article came out.  Seems like the Cardinals are up to their old tricks again and we might need to put Belisle on "Neshek Watch" this year!

The tipping pitch exercise appears to be paying off already as Belisle has yet to allow a run in Spring Training and his WHIP is at 0.95. While it is a weak sample size of 7+ IP, during spring training the last two years his ERA has been well over 5.00 and a WHIP of ~1.4.  What is most exciting about his work so far, he is also getting ground outs at a rate of 5 to 1 compared to fly outs.  That's a lot of double play opportunities when he comes into the game. Typically, high spring training numbers like 5 to 1 normalize for the regular season.  (Seth Maness' dynamic rookie season had his go/fo ratio of 2.29)  I think that type of success would be Belisle's upside.  

Final Thoughts:  Using a little over half of the money saved from obtaining and extending Waldon instead of re-signing Neshek, it looks like the Cardinals have a reliever similar in nature to Seth Maness.  I think getting someone to lighten the load while hopefully providing similar results will help the Cardinals over the 162 game grind and keep Maness fresh for the playoffs.  A one year contract provided flexibility to walk away if there aren't results.

Cardinals Sign 1B/3B Mark Reynolds for 1 year, $2 million

The lack of an experienced right handed bat off the bench with power haunted the 2014 Cardinals.  In efforts to rectify that situation, and provide a possible platoon option if Matt Adams' struggles against left-handed pitching continues, the Cardinals signed Mark Reynolds for 1 year, $2 million.  

In Spring Training, Mark Reynolds didn't preform well, posting a stat line of:  .132/.233/.289 with two homers.  Reynolds, 31, hit .196/.287/.394/ with 22 homers last season for Milwaukee.  

Final Thoughts:  I don't like the potential of him being used as a platoon option for Matt Adams against lefties at 1B.  Below are the 2014 vs LHP splits for both:

As you can see, Reynolds barely appears to be Matt Adams equal, let alone an upgrade in a platoon situation. My hope is that it is a move that was similar in nature to the Bourjois deal.  It pushed John Jay and he had a remarkable year in 2014 as a (partial) result.  Plus, Reynolds can fill in at multiple positions in case of injury and provides much needed experience to the bench.  Using the last remaining bit of the "Neshek" money, the Cardinals bought themselves a late-inning lottery ticket.  His all or nothing approach brings "Casey at the Bat" to mind, so here's hoping St. Louis doesn't play the role of Mudville too often.  Unfortunately, I think this acquisition may go the route of Ty Wigginton and the Cardinals will either be forced to acquire another bat or use Randall Grichuk.