As spring gets ready to arrive, I find myself eagerly awaiting the start of the baseball season! I'm a St. Louis Cardinals fan, who likes to follow the team closely. I'm really high on the Cardinals this year (who isn't!) and for the upcoming future. Here's how I see the 2014 St. Louis Cardinals:
Off-Season:
I feel like the GM, John Mozeliak, (Mo), is playing chess while other GMs are playing checkers. I love the David Freese trade, especially with how the minor league guy (Grichuk) looks. David had peaked, and while its bitter to see a hometown guy go, we addressed a big need in CF, if Peter Bourjos can stay healthy. Acquiring Ellis was a nice addition to provide security at 2B.
Losses: John Axford, once the Cardinals told him he was tipping his pitches and they corrected it, Axford seemed to recapture his old self. Setting himself at the 7th inning guy towards the end of the '13 season, it leaves a hole for someone to fill in '14. (Martinez/Maness?) Carlos Beltran's regular season numbers will be mostly replaced by Adams at 1B with Craig moving to RF. What worries me the most about losing Beltran are his post-season numbers, where Beltran is an elite all-time player and Adams is unproven.
Starting Pitching: Much has been said about the Cardinal's depth at the position. even with Garcia's shoulder problems. Wainwright, Lynn, Miller, Kelly, and Wacha are a really strong 5, and that doesn't even include Carlos Martinez (Baby Pedro) as an outside shot to take a spot. I think the Cards would be best by keeping Carlos in the 'pen one more year and let him develop some more. Kelly seems to get little to no respect, all the guy did last year is win 10 games and have a 2.58 era after July 1st. (including playoffs) If Garcia rehabs his shoulder, and remains healthy then the Cardinals will have a difficult decision to make when he returns in May/June.
Waino: Stud, gonna do what he always does.
Lynn: I feel like he is going to have a third season breakout (think WR in football) if he can keep his composure on the hill.
Miller: While Miller has the stuff to be a Future Ace, I suspect he will have a tough first half as hitters make their adjustments, but will bounce back and have an excellent 2nd half
Wacha: I like having him lower in the rotation to make pitching matchups a little easier on the "rookie", a confidence move if you will. Baby Waino will excel, but may have some bumps along the way.
Kelly: I predict that if he is given 32 starts, he would walk away with 15 wins. My only problems with Kelly in the past has been his pitch count, if he could lower that to extend his innings, he would solidify his spot.
Garcia: I'm extremely low on the guy, and it goes back to his refusal to undergo surgery in the off season of 2012-13. The Cards signed him to that 4yr, 40 mil contract and haven't gotten a great return so far.(next to nothing) I'm afraid his shoulder is never going to allow him to be the pitcher we all hoped he would become.
Relief Pitching: Solidified by Rosenthal returning as the closer. Rumblings have Motte ready by May to be our 8th inning guy. If all goes to my plan, that puts Carlos Martinez/Seth Maness in the 7th inning role with Choate and Seigrist as our leftys. I really like Pat Neshek, but he isn't currently on the 40 man roster. I think if Seigrist shows he can get rightys out, Butler might make the team as another lefty. I'd also be ok with keeping Neshek and putting Baby Pedro in AAA to remain stretched out as a starter in case we need him during the season in that role. More experience starting and strengthening his arm would be great imo. That of course means we would have to drop someone off our 40 man roster to make room for Neshek. :/
C: Yadier Molina: Best Catcher in baseball, 'nough said.
1B: Matt Adams: "Big City" has the chance to be a solid #5 hitter for the cards this year. I see .280, 25hr, 85rbi for him this year. I'd have a higher RBI total for him, if he didn't bat after Craig. I love hearing that he is in better shape, it looked like as the season wore on last year he added weight. If Adams can provide those numbers, the Beltran lose will be mostly negated.
2B: Wong/Ellis: I love the Ellis/Wong combo. I see this starting out as a timeshare. In a perfect world, Wong earns the nod as the starting 2B by mid-season with Ellis getting some utility at bats. Worst case they continue the platoon throughout the year.
SS: Johnny Peralta: I'm not a fan of his contract length (4 years). I think the 2nd half of the contract, he is a $10 mil utility player. For this year, I love the signing. Kozma (RIP with Cards) was flashy with his D, but Peralta is a serviceable SS with a MUCH better bat. I think we might see some Kozma substitutions in the late innings to keep him apart of the team (if he makes the roster). Peralta really upgraded an already potent offense.
3B: Matt Carpenter, fresh off a 6 yr $52mil extension (GREAT JOB MO!) is moving back to his native position after spending 2013 at 2B. I predict he will end up being this generations Willie McGhee, a very good player who is insanely popular due to his work ethic and the way he "plays the game". Even if Carp falls back a little, gotta keep expectations real, he is still a STEAL at 8.5 mil a year! He finished 4th in the MVP voting after switching to a position he'd never played before! If Carp had more speed he would be the prototypical #1 hitter. If Wong/Bourjos takes off, I could see Carp moving into the better suited #2 slot.
LF: Matt Holliday: Stud Stud Stud. I've got two "knocks" on one of the most consistent players in MLB. #1 He isn't as clutch as I would like. #2. He gets off to the worst starts, but always has a tremendous 2nd half and has the numbers at the end of the year. #1, I am comparing him to Yadi and Craig, not many players are that clutch.(In 2013, only Freddie Freeman would be in the conversation) #2, Holliday is RAKING (8 for 12) in Spring Training so far...if he has just an avg Apr/May we could be looking at his best season as a Cardinal yet.
CF: Peter Bourjos/John Jay: I've been really impressed with all I've read about Jay's response to the Bourjos acquisition. I like that Jay has been getting a lot of time at the corners in ST as well. I think we are looking at Bourjos getting about 2/3 of the starts and Jay getting the other 1/3 at CF. Bourjos really upgrades the team speed, one of the weaknesses of the Cardinals in 2013. If he can maintain a .333 OBP or better, he and Carpenter make a scary top of the lineup.
RF: Allen Craig: One of the BEST RBI guys in baseball. I would like to see his power numbers to go up just a little. 20-25 homers would be great. That being said, I do not want more power at the expense of his clutch hitting. When there are runners on base Craig gets locked in like very few other hitters. His ability to go opposite field in clutch situations is amazing. His fielding was ok last year, I'm interested to see if that improves in RF as he plays everyday there this year.
Bench:
INF Descalso
INF Ellis
OF: Jay
OF: Robinson
INF:Kozma (until Taveras is ready?)
The Cardinals could use a bigger bat off the bench, but if Oscar Taveras joins the team and rotates through the outfield, then that problem will solve itself.
Projected Rotation:
Wainwright
Lynn
Miller
Wacha
Kelly
Projected Lineup:
1. Bourjos/Wong
2. Carpenter
3. Holliday
4. Craig
5. Adams
6. Molina
7. Peralta
8. Wong/Bourjos
Defense:
C: Yadier Molina
1B: Matt Adams
2B: Kolten Wong
3B: Matt Carpenter
SS: Johnny Peralta
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Peter Bourjos
RF: Allen Craig
Conclusions:
Barring a heavy amount of injuries, I believe the Cardinals have the talent to make it back to post-season play again this year. I feel as though they are the favorite to repeat as Central Division Champions, but worst case should be a wild-card birth to make the playoffs. Once in the playoffs, its anyone's game...
Go REDS!!!
ReplyDeleteYou would! Enjoy Skip Shumacker, he's a gamer! I'll enjoy Ludwick on the DL :P
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